The Setup
Dua minggu menjelang pertemuan FOMC 28-29 Juli 2026, market mulai pricing in probabilitas cut yang signifikan untuk pertama kalinya dalam siklus ini.
Key Numbers
| Indicator | Current | MoM Change |
|---|---|---|
| CPI YoY | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| Core PCE | 3.4% | -0.1% |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | +0.1% |
| Avg Hourly Earnings | 4.1% | -0.1% |
Fed Funds Market Pricing
CME FedWatch menunjukkan probabilitas:
- Hold (5.25-5.50%): 30%
- Cut 25bp (5.00-5.25%): 65%
- Cut 50bp (4.75-5.00%): 5%
Data Dependency
The recent softness in labor market data — alongside continued disinflation in shelter costs — gives the Fed cover to begin normalization. However, the equity market’s resilience complicates the narrative.
“The Fed doesn’t want to be seen as easing into a stock market at ATHs.” — Wall Street Journal, 12 Jul 2026
Our View
We assign a 55% probability of a 25bp cut, driven by:
- Lag effect of restrictive policy now fully transmitted
- Labor market cooling faster than expected
- Political pressure mounting as we approach election season
The risk is asymmetric: a hold would trigger a 2-3% selloff, while a cut would be met with a relief rally that fades within days.