LIVE · 03.49 WIB
DXY 99.42 ▼ 0.18%
SPX 5,712.30 ▲ 0.42%
NDX 20,318.55 ▲ 0.61%
US10Y 4.27% ▼ 0.04%
US02Y 3.81% ▼ 0.02%
BTC $104,820 ▲ 1.84%
ETH $3,612 ▲ 2.21%
GOLD $2,418 ▲ 0.27%
WTI $66.10 ▼ 1.42%
VIX 14.22 ▼ 3.81%
SOL $182.40 ▲ 3.12%
EURUSD 1.0894 ▲ 0.11%
DXY 99.42 ▼ 0.18%
SPX 5,712.30 ▲ 0.42%
NDX 20,318.55 ▲ 0.61%
US10Y 4.27% ▼ 0.04%
US02Y 3.81% ▼ 0.02%
BTC $104,820 ▲ 1.84%
ETH $3,612 ▲ 2.21%
GOLD $2,418 ▲ 0.27%
WTI $66.10 ▼ 1.42%
VIX 14.22 ▼ 3.81%
SOL $182.40 ▲ 3.12%
EURUSD 1.0894 ▲ 0.11%
HONEST ASSESSMENT · 10 CALL TERAKHIR
Track Record
70%
Akurasi tertimbang
6 hit · 2 partial · 2 miss
+9.1R
Total R-multiple
10 call · risk per trade ≈40bp
6/10
Hit rate (strict)
Tanpa partial credit
0
Dana klien dikelola
Single-LP private office
Event Tanggal Call Aktual Hasil P&L
29 Apr 2026
Hawkish hold; dot plot turun jadi 2 cut 2026
Hawkish hold; dot plot 2 cut
Spot on. Long DXY pre-meeting, SPX puts kecil sebagai hedge.
HIT
+1.2R
10 Apr 2026
Headline 3.0% / Core 3.2% — hot
Headline 3.0% / Core 3.2%
Sticky shelter konsisten dengan model. USD long bekerja.
HIT
+1.8R
4 Apr 2026
+115k miss, UR naik ke 4.2%
+129k, UR 4.1%
Direction benar, magnitude kurang. Trim USD long lebih cepat.
PARTIAL
+0.3R
18 Mar 2026
Hold + dovish surprise di Q&A
Hold; Powell netral, tidak dovish
Salah baca tone Powell. Stop hit di SPX call.
MISS
-0.6R
12 Mar 2026
Core 3.3% — di atas konsensus
Core 3.3%
Tariff passthrough terbukti — model bekerja.
HIT
+2.1R
7 Mar 2026
+170k beat, UR stabil
HIT
+0.9R
28 Jan 2026
Hold + cautious — tidak ada cut signal
Hold; Powell cautious
DXY rally sesuai ekspektasi.
HIT
+1.4R
14 Jan 2026
Headline 2.7% / Core 3.0%
Headline 2.9% / Core 3.1%
Underestimate energi component.
PARTIAL
+0.4R
10 Jan 2026
+165k, UR 4.1%
+211k, UR 4.0%
Holiday seasonal lebih kuat dari ekspektasi.
MISS
-0.8R
17 Des 2025
Cut 25bp + dovish
Cut 25bp + cautious dovish
Best call Q4. SPX calls + BTC long bekerja sempurna.
HIT
+2.4R
METODOLOGI TRACK RECORD
Self-grading rules
Hit = direction & magnitude benar. Partial = direction benar, magnitude meleset >25%. Miss = direction salah, atau direction benar tapi tone analysis keliru.
R-multiple
Setiap call diasosiasikan dengan trade pribadi. P&L dihitung dalam unit R (risk per trade), bukan rupiah, untuk komparabilitas.
Tidak ada cherry-pick
Semua call yang dipublikasikan masuk track record — termasuk yang miss. Edits & retraksi disorot eksplisit, tidak dihapus diam-diam.